GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2008-01-24

     
   

Sample: 2000(2)-2007(3), Forecast: 2007(4) through 2008 (1)

    Table 1: GDP forecasts
   
         
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
  forecast standard error realisation
2007(3) 2.86 0.48 2.9
2007(4) 2.96 0.55 -
2008(1)
 2.37 0.77 -
    Sources: Own calculations, realised GDP: seco
  Last update
2008-01-24
  Standard error of regression
0.550
  Literature:
see here
  Business cycle data 2008-01-24
  History
First release
    2007-11-30 release

 

  Illustration
  Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP and the KOF barometer: Ex-ante forecast properties
 

Picture