GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2008-05-06

Sample: 2000(2)-2007(4), Forecast: 2008(1) through 2008 (2)

Table 1: GDP forecasts


Date	Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
	forecast	standard error		realisation
2007(4)	3.65	-		3.6
2008(1)	3.17	0.55		-
2008(2)	2.14	0.77		-

Sources: Own calculations, realised GDP: seco (March 2008 release)

	Previous update	2008-01-24
	Standard error of regression	0.600

	Literature:	see here
	Business cycle data	2008-04-30
	History	2008-01-24 release
		2007-11-30 release
		First release

	Illustration
	Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP and the KOF barometer: Ex-ante forecast properties

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