GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2008-11-07

     
   

Sample: 2000(2)-2008(2), Forecast: 2008(3) through 2008 (4)

    Table 1: GDP forecasts
   
           
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
  forecast standard error
realisations*
2008(2) 2.93 - 2.6 2.3
2008(3) 2.18 0.51 1.6 -
2008(4)
 1.41 0.58 - -
   

Sources: Own calculations, *realised GDP: seco (left: December 04 vs. : September 02, 2008, releases)

Note: Forecasts obtained by combination of best nowcasting model and best forecasting model including the best nowcast for 2008q3.

  Previous update
2008-08-15
  Standard error of regression*
0.573
  Literature:
see here
  Business cycle data 2008-08-15 (Microsoft Excel file)
  History 2008-08-15 release
   
2008-05-06 release
    2008-01-24 release
    2007-11-30 release
    First release
  *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.

 

  Illustration
  Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP and the KOF barometer: Ex-ante forecast properties
 

 
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