GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2009-02-06

     
   

Sample: 2000(2)-2008(3), Forecast: 2008(4) through 2009 (1)

    Table 1: GDP forecasts
   
           
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
  forecast standard error
realisations*
2008(3) 2.13 - - 1.6
2008(4) -0.26 0.44 - -
2009(1)
 -0.33 0.60 - -
   

Sources: Own calculations, *realised GDP: seco (left: September 02, 2008; right : December 04, 2008 releases)

Note: Forecasts obtained by combination of best nowcasting model and best forecasting model including the best nowcast for 2008q4.

  Previous update
2008-08-15
  Standard error of regression*
0.590
  Literature:
NEW! KOF working paper 212
  Business cycle data 2009-02-06 (Microsoft Excel file)
  History 2008-11-07 release
    2008-08-15 release
   
2008-05-06 release
    2008-01-24 release
    2007-11-30 release
    First release
  *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.

 

  Illustration
  Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP and the KOF barometer: Ex-ante forecast properties
 

 
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