GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2009-05-12

     
   

Sample: 2000(2)-2008(4), Forecast: 2009 (1)

    Table 1: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast
   
           
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
  forecast standard error
realisations*
2008(3) 2.22 - 1.6 1.4
2008(4) -0.26 - - -0.60
2009(1)
 -2.33 0.44 - -
   

Sources: Own calculations, *realised GDP: seco (left: December 04, 2008 ; right : March 02, 2009 releases)

Note: Forecasts obtained best nowcasting model.

  Previous update
2009-02-06
  Standard error of regression*
0.633
  Literature:
KOF working paper 212
  Business cycle data 2009-05-12 (Microsoft Excel file)
  History 2009-02-06 release
    2008-11-07 release
    2008-08-15 release
   
2008-05-06 release
    2008-01-24 release
    2007-11-30 release
    First release
  *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.

 

  Illustration
  Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP and the KOF barometer: Ex-ante forecast properties
 

 
  «home