GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2009-11-26

     
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast
   
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
  forecast standard error
realisations*
2009(1) -1.72 - -2.36 -2.2
2009(2) -2.61 - - -2.0
2009(3)
-0.44 0.50 - -
   

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2009(3), before that date fitted values, *realised GDP: seco (left: June 02, 2009 ; right : September 01, 2009 releases)

Sample: 2000(2)-2009(2), Forecast: 2009 (3)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

SPECIAL FEATURE
  Financial crisis implication for the economy and for economists (presentation to Hull University students Oct 2009).
     
    Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP and the KOF barometer: Ex-ante forecast properties
   

Surprise index - GDP forecast

 

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NOTES  
Previous update
2009-08-24
Standard error of regression*
0.673
Literature:
Business cycle data Please ask for your personal copy!
History 2009-08-24 release
  2009-05-12 release
  Complete release history
  First release
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release
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