GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2010-05-21

     
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast
   
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
 
forecast
standard error
realisations*
2009(3)
-0.99
-
-1.3
-1.3
2009(4)
1.00
-
-
0.6
2010(1)
3.10
0.45
-
-
   

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2010(1), before that date fitted values, *realised GDP: seco (left: November 30, 2009, right: March 02, 2010 releases)

Sample: 2000(2)-2009(4), Forecast: 2010 (1)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

SPECIAL FEATURE
  Quantification of Qualitative Data conference June 24 - 26, 2010 in Zurich. Program now online!
     
    Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP and the KOF barometer: Ex-ante forecast properties
   

Surprise index - GDP forecast

 
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NOTES  
Previous update
2010-02-28
Standard error of regression*
0.708
Literature:
Business cycle data Please ask for your personal copy!
History 2010-02-28 release
  2009-11-26 release
  Complete release history
  First release
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release
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