GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2012-02-15
     
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast
C M-K  
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
 
forecast
standard error
realisations*
2011(2)
2.55
-
2.32
2.19
2011(3)
1.37
-
-
1.27
2011(4)
0.88
0.52
-
-
 

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2011(4), before that date fitted values, *realised GDP: seco (left: September 1, 2011, right: December 1, 2011 releases)

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2011 (3), Forecast: 2011 (4)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

   
  SPECIAL FEATURE: «KOF surprise indicator» forecasts successfully evaluated! Read how and why the «KOF surprise indicator» provides a sound basis for reliable forecasts!
   
  Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties
 

forecast

 
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NOTES  
Previous update
Standard error of regression*
0.850
Literature:
Business cycle data Please ask for your personal copy!
History 2011-11-16 release
  2011-08-29 release
  2011-05-24 release
  2011-02-22 release
  Complete release history
  First release
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.
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