SWISS GDP Forecast Q3/14

GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2015-02-11

Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast

Date	Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
	forecast	standard error	seco estimates*
2014(2)	1.69	-	1.4	1.6
2014(3)	1.60	-	-	1.9
2014(4)	2.27	0.42	-	-

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2014(4), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: September 30, 2014, right: December 3, 2014).

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2014 (3), Forecast: 2014 (4)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties

NOTES
Previous update	2014-11-12 release
Standard error of regression*	0.029
Literature	KOF working paper 212
Business cycle data	Ask for your personal copy.
History	2014-11-12 release
	2014-08-13 release
	2014-05-15 release
	2014-02-14 release
	Complete release history
	First release
Next release	2015-05-13

*Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.