GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification

Release 2018-08-15
    Figure 1: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties  



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Forecast update. Dropping slightly to -0.023 (down from a revised -0.019) in 2018, second quarter the «KOF surprise indicator» for measuring Swiss economic dynamics confirms strong growth albeit at a declining rate.
The new estimate for Swiss real GDP year-on-year expansion based on the «KOF surprise indicator» shows a robust 2.4 percent growth rate which compares to 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2018.
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast  
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
fitted / forecast
standard error
seco estimates*

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2018(2), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: March 1, 2018, right: May 31, 2018).

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2018 (1), Forecast: 2018 (2)

Note: Forecast obtained by best nowcasting model.


Outlook. Investment into new capacities and as yet untapped labour resources afford the Swiss economy more room for expansion than previously thought. After two quarters with exceptionally strong growth Switzerland braces for a record year.

  Meanwhile, international trade and other economic quarrels cast a shadow on the Swiss Franc which has recently significantly appreciated against the Euro. The prospect of trade wars, the Turkish crisis spreading and a rehearsal of the Euro financial troubles remain a considerable source of concern for the medium run outlook. There is a good chance that the good times will come to an end within the next six months or even sooner.  
Previous update
Standard error of regression*
Business cycle data (csv) download
History 2018-05-25 release
  Complete release history
  First release
Next release 2018-11-14
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.  

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