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Switzerland strong in 2022 |
TEST |
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Release 2023-02-14 |
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Figure: Business cycle indicator and Swiss GDP with forecast |
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Forecast
update. The last 2022 reading of the «KOF Surprise Indicator» logs a modest -0.024 (down from -0.013, revised) indicating a 0.83 percent growth of Swiss GDP y-o-y in 2022, fourth quarter. Over the course of the whole 2022 real income increased by a respectable 1.95 percent. |
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Table:
Swiss real gross domestic product with
forecast |
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Date |
Year-to-year growth (%) of
Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP) |
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fitted / forecast |
standard error |
seco estimates* |
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2022(3) |
1.18 |
- |
2.43 |
2.24 |
| 2022(4) |
3.52 |
- |
- |
0.49 |
| 2023(1) |
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0.78 |
- |
- |
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Sources: Own calculations, forecast
for 2023(4), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: September 13, 2022, right: November 29, 2022).
Sample: 2000 (2) - 2022 (3),
Forecast: 2022 (4), SECO data
Note: Forecast obtained by best
nowcasting model. |
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Nowcast.
The Swiss economy witnessed yet another rather strong expansion in 2022 against many odds, including currency appreciation, interest rate hikes, and the war on Ukraine. Overall growth amounts to almost 2 percent over the course of the year thanks mainly due to a good start an a healthy 3rd quarter. |
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GDP expansion in the last quarter of the past year is estimated 0.83 percent year on year based on the «KOF Surprise Indicator». |
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Outlook.
With inflation finally arriving in Switzerland the recession risks are on the rise again. Lower real incomes of workers and employees will take its toll in the near future very likely dampening GDP growth. |
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Special feature: Monetary economics. Inflation in Switzerland remains in check so far though there are serious doubts that the Swiss Central Bank has a lot to do with that, «Die geldpolitische Strategie der Schweizerischen Nationalbank in der Krise» argues (in German). Read more» |
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*Standard error of regression refers
to baseline model published in the first release. |
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Quarterly
nowcast update. Order your free personal quarterly email
alert with the latest GDP estimate based on the «KOF surprise
indicator». Subscribe here»
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