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Swiss GDP: Narrowly escaping recession |
TEST |
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Release 2024-02-18 |
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Figure: Business cycle indicator and Swiss GDP with forecast |
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Forecast update. The closing quarter of the past year witnessed yet another weak y-o-y growth of Swiss GDP, the
«KOF Surprise Indicator» tells. Despite recovering slightly to -0.044 (up from -0.051, revised)
Swiss GDP y-o-y expansion stalls at -0.09 percent in 2024, fourth quarter. The annual result for 2023 of 0.53 percent only narrowly escapes
recession territory. |
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Table:
Swiss real gross domestic product with
forecast |
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Date |
Year-to-year growth (%) of
Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP) |
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fitted / forecast |
standard error |
seco estimates* |
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2023(2) |
1.30 |
- |
0.48 |
0.34 |
| 2023(3) |
-0.46 |
- |
- |
0.25 |
| 2023(4) |
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0.77 |
- |
- |
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Sources: Own calculations, forecast
for 2023(4), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: August 31, 2023, right: December 1, 2023).
Sample: 2000 (2) - 2023 (3), Forecast: 2023 (4), SECO data
Note: Forecast obtained by best nowcasting model.
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Nowcast.
While stock prices across the Atlantic test ever new record levels, European economies still seem to suffer from war inflicted pessimism. Combined with German
and Swiss austerity obsession these ingredients provide a toxic medicine. The weak year-on-year growth continues at -0.09 percent in the fourth quarter
pushing the annual growth rate for 2023 to a low 0.5 percent according to the «KOF Surprise Indicator». |
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Outlook.
The risks posed by tight government budgets are currently materializing as a slippery slope towards a full-blown recession. Unfortunately, neither monetary nor fiscal
policy are sending the necessary signals to turn the tide. |
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As already noted three months ago the Swiss national bank would be well advised to stop and even return to a more accommodating policy by considering
lowering policy rates and policy makers should avoid excessive austerity measures. |
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*Standard error of regression refers
to baseline model published in the first release. |
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nowcast update. Order your free personal quarterly email
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