GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2016-02-17

     
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast
 
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
 
forecast
standard error
seco estimates*
2015(2)
0.58
-
1.2
0.9
2015(3)
-
-
0.8
2015(4)
0.46
-
-
   

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2015(4), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: August 28, 2015, right: December 1, 2015).

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2015 (3), Forecast: 2015 (4)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

     
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    Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties
   

forecast

 

     
     
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NOTES  
Previous update
Standard error of regression*
0.75
Literature
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History
 
 
 
  Complete release history
  First release
Next release 2016-05-11
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.
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