GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2016-08-17

     
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast
 
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
 
fitted / forecast
standard error
seco estimates*
2015(4)
0.77
-
0.4
0.33
2016(1)
-
-
0.7
2016(2)
0.46
-
-
   

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2016(2), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: March 8, 2016, right: May 31, 2016).

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2016 (1), Forecast: 2016 (2)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

     
    Forecast update. The first reading of the «KOF surprise indicator» for measuring Swiss economic dynamics of -0.036 (down from -0.032) after the Brexit vote shows a slight decline in comparison to the previous quarter. This new value indicate an end of the positive outlook for Swiss GDP growth witnessed earlier.
Swiss year-on-year real GDP growth is now estimated at 0.9 percent by means of the «KOF surprise indicator» in 2016, second quarter.
     
«home   Discussed: Why uncertainty? «Uncertainty» has become a buzz word in economics. In this oekonomensitimme article light is shed on what causes uncertainty in the first place. Understanding the sources of uncertainty offers a nuanced perspective on the role governments in fighting the aftermath of the financial crisis (in German). Details»
     
    Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties
   

forecast

 

     
     
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NOTES  
Previous update
Standard error of regression*
0.74
Literature
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History
 
 
 
  Complete release history
  First release
Next release 2016-11-16
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.
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