GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2014-05-15

     
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast
C M-K  
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
 
forecast
standard error
seco estimates*
2013(3)
1.56
-
1.9
2.1
2013(4)
2.62
-
-
1.7
2014(1)
0.50
-
-
 

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2014(1), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: November 28, 2013, right: February 27, 2014).

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2013 (3), Forecast: 2013 (4)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

   
   
   
  Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties
 

forecast

 

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NOTES  
Previous update
Standard error of regression*
1.011
Literature
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History
 
 
 
  Complete release history
  First release
Next release 2014-08-13
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.
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