GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2015-05-13

     
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast
 
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
 
forecast
standard error
seco estimates*
2014(3)
1.62
-
1.9
1.9
2014(4)
-
-
1.9
2015(1)
0.42
-
-
 

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2015(1), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: December 3, 2014, right: March 3, 2014).

§ Last quarter's forecast: 2.42 percent year-on-year. The mistakenly reported value of 2.3 referred to the quarter-on-quarter growth rate forecast.

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2014 (4), Forecast: 2015 (1)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

   
   
   
  Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties
 

forecast

 

     
   
NOTES  
Previous update
Standard error of regression*
0.70
Literature
Business cycle data Ask for your personal copy.
History
 
 
 
  Complete release history
  First release
Next release 2015-08-12
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.
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