GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2012-08-15
     
    Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast
C M-K  
Date
Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
 
forecast
standard error
realisations*
2011(4)
1.34
-
1.25
2.00
2012(1)
1.35
-
-
2.02
2012(2)
3.06
0.54
-
-
 

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2012(2), before that date fitted values, *realised GDP: seco releases (left: March 1, 2012, right: June 1, 2012).

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2012 (1), Forecast: 2012 (2)

Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model.

   
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  Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties
 

forecast

 
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NOTES  
Previous update
Standard error of regression*
0.835
Literature:
Business cycle data Please ask for your personal copy!
History 2012-05-16 release
  2012-02-15 release
  2011-11-16 release
  2011-08-29 release
  Complete release history
  First release
Next release 2012-11-14
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.
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