GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification - release: 2016-08-17 |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2016(2), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: March 8, 2016, right: May 31, 2016). Sample: 2000 (2) - 2016 (1), Forecast: 2016 (2) Note: Forecasts obtained by best nowcasting model. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Forecast update. The first reading of the «KOF surprise indicator» for measuring Swiss economic dynamics of -0.036 (down from -0.032) after the Brexit vote shows a slight decline in comparison to the previous quarter. This new value indicate an end of the positive outlook for Swiss GDP growth witnessed earlier. Swiss year-on-year real GDP growth is now estimated at 0.9 percent by means of the «KOF surprise indicator» in 2016, second quarter. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
«home | Discussed: Why uncertainty? «Uncertainty» has become a buzz word in economics. In this oekonomensitimme article I shed light on what causes uncertainty in the first place. Understanding the sources of uncertainty offers a nuanced perspective on the role governments in fighting the aftermath of the financial crisis (in German). Details» | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Figure: Business cycle indicator based on semantic identification in comparison to real GDP: Ex-ante forecast properties | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
«home |
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
*Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
«home |