GDP forecast based on semantic business cycle identification

Release 2020-02-19
    Figure 1: Business cycle indicator and Swiss GDP with forecast  


Forecast update. The «KOF Surprise Indicator» recovers to a healthy -0.02 (2019 Q2: -0.05) implying a year-on-year expansion of about 1.4 percent in 2019's last quarter. The rate of GDP growth logs 0.8 percent over the course of the year 2019.
«home   Table: Swiss real gross domestic product with forecast  

Year-to-year growth (%) of Swiss real gross domestic product (GDP)
fitted / forecast
standard error
seco estimates*

Sources: Own calculations, forecast for 2019(4), fitted values otherwise, *seco releases (left: September 5, 2019, right: November 28, 2019).

Sample: 2000 (2) - 2019 (3), Forecast: 2019 (4), SECO data

Note: Forecast obtained by best nowcasting model.

Nowcast. While virus fears spread in early 2020 the final quarter of last year has promising news in store with the KOF Surprise Indicator bouncing back to -0.03. Helped in part by a weak final quarter in 2018 the 2019q4 Swiss GDP growth estimate amounts to 1.4 percent year-on-year implying an overall satisfactory 0.8 percent growth rate for the whole of 2019.
    Outlook. The Swiss economy has adapted rather well to the Franc's appreciation over the past couple of months. The renewd surge in its value due to coronar virus related uncertainty will not help export demand neither will the recent weakness of the German industry. Consequently, deplorable GDP growth will likely stay with us for some time to come.  

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Previous update
Standard error of regression*
Business cycle data (csv) download
  2019-08-14 release
  Complete release history
  First release
Next release 2020-05-14
    *Standard error of regression refers to baseline model published in the first release.  

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