NEWS |
| Date | Topic | Details | |
| 2012-02-07 | Quantification | Evaluated. The first ever genuine forecast experiment for evaluating quarterly GDP estimates is now online available! Read why and how the KOF Surprise Indicator does so well when it comes to forecasting economic activity. Details» | |
| 2012-01-12 | Financial markets | Forthcoming! A new interpretation of known facts: The case of two-ways causality between trading and volatility in Economic Modelling | |
| 2011-11-16 | Quantification | Forecast update. Economic growth slows down according to the latest reading of the newly re-branded «KOF surprise indicator» Its latest value of just -0.04 is below its long-term average for the first time the last five quarters. The estimate of year-on-year GDP growth based on the indicator amounts to a weak 1.5 percent which compares to 2.4 percent in the previous quarter Details» | |
| 2011-09-21 | Financial markets | Published! Our economy in Modern Economy. Downloadable! | |
| 2011-09-02 | Financial markets | Published! The forward bias puzzle: Still unsolved has now been published by Elsevier's Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money. Downloadable! | |
| 2011-08-29 | Quantification | Forecast update. The latest reading of the «surprise index» shows an essentially constant value of -0.02 which indicates the end of the period of accelerating growth. The growth estimate for 2011, second quarter based on the «surprise index» of 2.4 percent in comparison to a year earlier points to an onset of a cyclical slowdown of the Swiss economy. Details» | |
| 2011-07-04 | Financial markets | The forward bias puzzle: Still unsolved now online available at Elsevier's Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money. Downloadable! | |
| 2011-05-24 | Quantification | Forecast update. After a brief decline the «surprise index» is going strong again at -0.019, its highest value ever since its all-time trough in 2009, second quarter. The latest uptick is evidence for a continued expansion of the Swiss economy. The estimate for 2011, first quarter based on the surprise index points to an expansion of the Swiss economy by 3.9 percent in comparison to a year earlier. Details» | |
| 2011-05-16 | Teaching | Students have shortlisted my name for the 2011 «Credit Suisse Award for Best Teaching». Thanks to all my students for this extaordinary honour! | |
| 2011-02-22 | Quantification | Forecast update. The surprise index is slightly down to -0.026 (from -0.02 in 2010 3rd quarter). This is the first decline after five quarters with positive growth in a row and foreshadows a slowdown of economic growth in the future. The estimate for 2010 based on the surprise index points to an expansion of the Swiss economy by 3.5 percent. Details» | |
| 2011-01-03 | Quantification | «A Note on the Carlson-Parkin Method of Quantifying Qualitative Data» makes SSRN top ten list for ERN: Collecting, Estimating, & Organizing Microeconomic Data. Read also the journal publication (Economics Letters) here» | |
| 2010-11-29 | Quantification | Forecast update. During the third quarter the Swiss economy saw again a steady expansion. The surprise index which tracks the performance of the Swiss economy increased in the third quarter 2010 to -0.02 (2010 2nd quarter: -0.31). The corresponding growth rate estimate points to a largely constant speed of expansion of 2.8 percent compared to a year earlier. This figure is down by 0.2 from 3.0 compared to the second quarter of this year. Details» | |
| 2010-10-29 | Quantification | CESifo conference on Macroeconomics and Survey data: Presentation of Business cycle analysis - A Markov-chain Assessment». | |
| 2010-10-24 | Quantification | Eva Koeberl and Sarah Lein receive the 2010 Young Economist "Isaac Kerstenetzky Award" for their outstanding paper The NIRCU and the Phillips curve | |
| 2010-10-19 | Fiscal Policy | A debt brake for Hesse? Read why the current proposal may not be optimal, and why we should pay special attention to regional business cycles (in German)! A collection of all expert statements can be found here. | |
| 2010-08-19 | Quantification | Forecast update. The surprise index measuring the performance of the Swiss economy increased in the second quarter 2010 a fourth time in a row. The new reading of -0.31 (up 0.09 from -0.04) indicates a sustained economic recovery though at a slower pace. The derived year-on-year growth rate estimate is down at 2.2 percent in 2010 Q2 (2010 Q1: 3.1) which confirms the moderation of economic dynamics predicted in the previous release. Details» | |
| 2010-08-13 | Financial markets | Uncertainty - a blind spot in economics now online available at Oekonomenstimme.org (in German) . | |
| 2010-06-24 | Quantification | Conference Quantification of qualitative data now on! | |
| 2010-05-21 | Quantification | Forecast update Economic growth accelerated again in the first quarter of this year compared to the previous year. The surprise index which flags year-on-year business cycle dynamics rose to -.040 (up by 0.04 from -.044). This increase is the lowest since the start of the recovery in 2009 Q3 hinting at the possibility of lower growth rates in the future. Year-on-year growth is estimated at a healthy 3.1 percent in 2010 Q1 (2009 Q4: 1.00 ). | |
| 2010-04-21 | Quantification | Published: "You CAN Carlson-Parkin" Economics Letters article now online! | |
| 2010-04-21 | Quantification | "You CAN Carlson-Parkin" Economics Letters' proofs now online available! | |
| 2010-03-15 | Quantification | Quantification of qualitative data" conference registration has now started! | |
| 2010-02-28 | Quantification | Forecast update Yet another quarter of an impressive economic recovery in Switzerland. The business cycle indicator rose again by 0.02 to -.04 (up from -.06) confirming the end of the recession. Year-on-year growth turned positive reaching 2009 Q4: 0.92 after four quarters with negative growth. | |
| 2010-02-05 | Quantification | Call for papers out now! Quantification of qualitative data conference: June 24-26 in Zurich. Submit, take part, support! | |
| 2009-11-26 | Quantification | "The information content of qualitative survey data" now online available! Download your personal copy! | |
| 2009-11-26 | Quantification | Forecast update Economic activity in Switzerland was weak again in the third quarter. However, the business cycle indicator (now at -.062, up by 0.02 from -.082) flags economic recovery may be at the doorsteps. Year-on-year growth bounces back to 2009 Q3: -0.44 from -2.61 in 2009 second quarter. | |
| 2009-10-28 | Financial markets | Latest presentation slides now available: "Puzzle Solver" and "Swiss views on the financial crisis". | |
| 2009-10-22 | Financial markets | "Swiss views on the financial crisis": presentation to HUBS students. | |
| 2009-10-21 | Financial markets | "Puzzle solver": invited talk at Hull University Business School. Slides now available. | |
| 2009-10-16 | Financial markets | "Puzzle solver" and "Our economy" available online. | |
| 2009-08-24 | Quantification | Forecast update The business cycle indicator signals another strong decline in Swiss GDP in the second quarter. Year-on-year growth drops to 2009 Q2: -2.75 (down by 0.4 from -2.36 in 2009 first quarter). The indicator value is now at -0.083 (Q1: -0.069). | |
| 2009-08-20 | Financial markets | Die Börse ist kein Kasino - heute in der Neuen Zürcher Zeitung:. (The trading floor is not a "Casino", in German.) | |
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